Radio Skye survey: Kate Forbes’ First Minister candidacy

Forty six per cent of voters have given their backing to Kate Forbes to become Scotland’s First Minister, according to the results of a Radio Skye survey.

The snap poll which ran for 48 hours between Tuesday 21st and Thursday 23rd February sought to gauge the views of Ms Forbes’ constituents across Skye and Lochalsh on her candidacy for First Minister.

The survey gathered a total 202 responses, 85 per cent of which were (173 responses) from Skye and Lochalsh residents.

The seven-question poll included questions on topics such as equal marriage and the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which have been hotly debated since Ms Forbes announced her candidacy on Monday 20th February.

Forbes for First Minister?

Radio Skye asked if you had a vote in the election of the new SNP leader – the future First Minister – how would you cast it, with the choice of all three candidates or none of the above given as options.

A total of 201 people answered the question, while one person skipped it.

Kate Forbes received a total of 93 votes (46 per cent)

Humza Yousaf polled 40 votes (20 per cent), while Ash Regan gained 16 votes
(8 per cent).

Fifty two people said that they would vote for none of the candidates (26 per cent).

The 25 to 34-year-olds were the only group in which Humza Yousaf (12 votes) received the more votes than Kate Forbes (eight votes) out of a total of 31, Ash Regan received two, while nine people opted for none of the candidates.

Of the 16-18-year-olds (seven in total) who took part in the survey,  two apiece voted for Kate Forbes and Humza Yousaf, Ash Regan polled one vote, and none of the candidates were the choice of the remaining two. All other ages group votes in the majority for Kate Forbes.

Answers and age breakdown

Reasons for voting for Kate Forbes if chosen candidate

Of the 196 people who took part in this question, 20 people said it was because she had done a good jobs as their MSP (10 percent). An equal number cited her as being the strongest candidate of those standing for the leadership.
Seven people (4 per cent) said their endorsement of Ms Forbes was on account of her ability to lead Scotland to independence, and six people (3 per cent) picked her because of her support for Gaelic language and Gaelic culture.
The majority who selected Kate Forbes cited a combination of all five of the reasons as why they are supporting her.
Eighty people said the question was not applicable to them.

Reasons for not voting for Kate Forbes

A total 198 people answered the question of why they would not vote for Kate Forbes, although 101 said that the question was not applicable to them. Seventeen people said that she was not the strongest candidate (9 per cent), while 12 of the 97 respondents (6 per cent) who cited reasons said that she had not done a good job as their MSP. Three people (2 per cent) said that she could not lead Scotland to independence, while the majority of those who said they would not vote for the Finance Minister, 64 people (32 per cent) cited ‘another reason.’

Majority in favour of equal marriage

Since announcing her candidacy Ms Forbes suitability to govern as leader of Scotland has been called into question by members of her own party as well as sections of wider the public after she said that she would not have voted in favour of the Equal Marriage Bill due to her religious beliefs as a practising member of the Free Church of Scotland.

The Equal Marriage Bill became law in 2014, passing by 105 votes to 18 at Holyrood.

In the Radio Skye survey, 129 out of 202 respondents (64 per cent) said they were in favour of equal marriage.

A total of 39 people (19 per cent) said they didn’t have any strong feeling on the matter, while 21 respondents (10 per cent) said they do not support it.

Overall 13 people (6 per cent) said they would prefer not to say how they felt on the matter.

Answers and age breakdown

Gender Recognition Reform Bill

On 22nd December  2022 the Scottish Parliament passed the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill by a majority of 86 to 39, with 0 abstentions and four members not voting.

The aim of the bill is to make it simpler for people to change their legal gender.

However, on 16th January 2023, the UK Government’s Scottish Secretary announced that he would invoke an order under section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998, which would block the bill from proceeding to royal assent.

When asked this week whether she would have supported the bill, Kate Forbes MSP said she had significant concerns over the legislation and would not step in the way of the UK Government’s intervention.

The Radio Skye survey asked Ms Forbes’ constituents in Skye and Lochalsh for their thoughts on the GRR bill.

In response, 90 people of the 202 who answered (45 per cent) said they were not in favour.

Fifty eight people (29 per cent) said they supported it, while 42 respondents (21 percent) said they don’t have any strong feelings on the issue.

Twelve people (6 per cent), meanwhile answered that they would prefer not to say.

Answers and age breakdown

Religion and politics

Radio Skye then asked for people’s thoughts on religious views within politics

Eight eight people (44 per cent) said that they don’t have a place in politics.

Fifty five respondents (27 per cent) said that it depends on the subject matter, while 27 people (13 per cent) answered that religious views do have a place in politics.

Only two people (1 per cent) said they would prefer not to say.

 Answers and age breakdown

Age breakdown

Of the 202 people who took part in the Radio Skye survey, 35-44 year-olds and 45-54 year-olds accounted for the largest groups with 46 people in each age bracket (23 per cent)

The next most populous group was the 55-64 year-olds (34 per cent) who made up (17 per cent) of the vote. The rest were as follows:

25-34 year-olds: 31 out of 202 (15 per cent)
65 years plus : 29 out of 202 (14 per cent)
19-24 year-olds: 9 out of 202 (5 per cent)
16-18 year-olds : 7 out of 202 (3 percent)

A total of 202 people to took part in the survey, of which 173 (86 per cent) said they were residents of Skye or Lochalsh, while 29 (14 per cent) said they lived elsewhere.

On Friday Kate Forbes, Ash Regan, and Humza Yousaf were ratified as the the candidates in the running to become the new leader of the Scottish National Party.

The ballot will open at noon on 13 March 2023 and will close at noon on 27 March 2023.

Survey and article by Adam Gordon, Radio Skye.